ASPO conference comments from M Paine

M Paine:

• My observations and comments:
  The peak in oil production might have occurred in late 2005, and most in this group believe it will certainly happen prior to 2011 - 2012. If it hasn't occurred, my bet would be 2008, as I have believed since 2001 or so.
• It sure looks like Saudi has produced about half of its recoverable oil, meaning it is at or near peak, in turn meaning the world is at or near peak.
• Cantarell (second largest field in the world, in Mexico) peaked in 2004 as I previously communicated to you, and is down from 2 MMBO/D (late 2005) to 1.6 MMBO/D today. It is on a trajectory near to the "worst case" scenario, as described by Pemex in early 2005, and later confirmed by the WSJ.
• Oil Export Withholding (Hirsch) seems quite likely, and was a new one to me. Means things will happen even faster.
• Jeffrey Brown's "Export Land Model" is similar, but is a “physics” rather than an economic/geopolitical phenomenon. Namely, when consumption in exporting nations is increasing in a low, but compounding fashion (as it is), and production begins decreasing in a compounding fashion, then those nations soon have NONE to export - much sooner than if they hadn't been growing their consumption. To wit: Indonesia, UK - both exporters until very recently.
• GDP will drop about like the oil rate will decline - and continuously, year over year. (Hirsch)
• Rationing of gas and diesel are in our near (0 - 3 years) future.
• Inflation is far understated, and will rear its head soon. And at a time when the economy is deteriorating.
• There could be a series of "head fakes", ie prices drop for a time, due to new Rockies Express pipeline, LNG, Independence Hub online - or due to a rapid run-up in price causing demand destruction (for a short while) (Petrie)
• There is no simplistic "smoking gun, no reason" for Peak Oil, hence the public and the media can't "get it". So, the politicians won’t get it. (Whipple)
• Not yet a critical mass to move people and politicians.(Whipple)
• Behavior is not likely to change until there is a pronounced shortage at the pumps, hoarding.(Whipple)
• Politicians, in general have a "Don't have enough? Well, just get more." attitude.
• Although not related to Peak Oil, many minerals are now in short supply, controlled by foreign govts, either in our country or theirs. (Matthews)
• Still no battery or electricity storage solution for plug-in hybrids or pure electric vehicles

http://peakopps.blogspot.com/2007/11/aspo-1007-mps-comments.html